Abstract

The 2015 Illapel earthquake (Mw 8.3) occurred off central Chile on September 16, and generated a tsunami that propagated across the Pacific Ocean. The tsunami was recorded on tide gauges and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) tsunameters in east Pacific. Near-field and far-field tsunami forecasts were issued based on the estimation of seismic source parameters. In this study, we retroactively evaluate the potentiality of forecasting this tsunami in the far field based solely on tsunami data assimilation from DART tsunameters. Since there are limited number of DART buoys, virtual stations are assumed by interpolation to construct a more complete tsunami wavefront for data assimilation. The comparison between forecasted and observed tsunami waveforms suggests that our method accurately forecasts the tsunami amplitudes and arrival time in the east Pacific. This approach could be a complementary method of current tsunami warning systems based on seismic observations.

Link