Abstract

The last great earthquake in northern Chile took place in 1877, and the ensuing tsunami affected not only that region but also Central Chile. For example, the Bay of Concepción, which is located 1,500 km south of the tsunami source, experienced an inundation height of around 3 m. Ports are important in the Chilean economy, due to the fact that a large percentage of Chilean exports (excluding copper) use ports located in Central Chile. With this in mind, the authors investigated the potential effect of an 1877-like tsunami on the main ports of Central Chile. To do this, the dispersive wave model Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs was used. In addition, the first tsunami forecast model for Talcahuano, inside the Bay of Concepción, was developed by means of numerical simulation of several events of different moment magnitudes. The results showed that most of the important ports (Valparaiso, San Antonio, San Vicente and Coronel) had inundation heights on the order of just 1 m, while inundation levels in Talcahuano reached up to 3.5 m. The forecast model for Talcahuano uses only earthquake magnitude, focal depth and tide level to determine tsunami inundation heights. In addition, the tsunami arrival time was computed to be 3 h, and the maximum tsunami amplitude takes place at 4 h and 45 min after the earthquake.

Keywords

1877 Iquique tsunami, Central Chile, Shelf resonance, Tsunami forecast model, Bay of Concepción

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