International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Alonso Ogueda, Simon Guzman y Cyril Mokrani.
Análisis del riesgo y mitigación
Tsunami, Urban form, Evacuation, Modelling
In the case of near-field tsunami emergencies, evacuation is considered the most important and effective method to save human lives. While significant efforts have been carried out to examine the relationships between urban forms and tsunami evacuation, challenges remain on delivering evidence-based urban design strategies, principles or metrics that could be applied by decision-makers to guide the physical development or retrofitting of tsunami-prone coastal communities around the world. In this paper, we propose a methodology that combines tsunami flood and evacuation modelling with statistical analysis, to examine the pedestrian evacuation potential of 67 urban samples extracted from 12 case studies in Chile. Our findings show that urban form parameters like the number of exit points out of an endangered area, the mean distance from the street network to these points, and the population density, can have a noticeable impact on tsunami evacuation times, which nonetheless is significantly dependent on the evacuees’ departure time. Moreover, we demonstrate that Chilean urban coastal development has been noticeably carried out through grid-like form patterns that might contribute to hinder evacuation in case of a tsunami emergency.