Rodrigo Cienfuegos
Patricio Catalán
Alejandro Urrutia
Roberto Benavente Bravo
Rafael Aranguiz
Gabriel González
Geophysical Research Letters
L2. Amenazas por procesos de aguas superficiales
L1. Amenazas por procesos de tierra sólida
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María
Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción
Universidad Católica del Norte
2018
The variability in obtaining estimates of tsunami inundation and runup on a near-real-time tsunami hazard assessment setting is evaluated. To this end, 19 different source models of the Maule Earthquake were considered as if they represented the best available knowledge an early tsunami warning system could consider. Results show that large variability can be observed in both coseismic deformation and tsunami variables such as inundated area and maximum runup. This suggests that using single source model solutions might not be appropriate unless categorical thresholds are used. Nevertheless, the tsunami forecast obtained from aggregating all source models is in good agreement with observed quantities, suggesting that the development of seismic source inversion techniques in a Bayesian framework or generating stochastic finite fault models from a reference inversion solution could be a viable way of dealing with epistemic uncertainties in the framework of nearly-real-time tsunami hazard mapping.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos 1,2; Patricio A. Catalán 1,3,4; Alejandro Urrutia 1; Roberto Benavente 1; Rafael Aránguiz 1,5; and Gabriel González 1,6
1 Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN), Santiago, Chile
2 Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
3 Departamento de Obras Civiles, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso, Chile
4 Centro Científico Tecnológico de Valparaíso-CCTVal, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso, Chile
5 Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Chile
6 Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas, Universidad Católica del Norte, Antofagasta, Chile